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Abstract
This paper estimates that the size of the illegal market of cannabis for recreational use in Portugal is between 36 and 58 tonnes. In the event of cannabis legalisation, the estimated size of the legal market ranges from 23.6 to 39.3 tonnes (conservative scenario) or reaches 51.2 tonnes (optimistic scenario). Fiscal revenue would be between €52.7M and €70.8M (conservative scenario) or reach €151.3M (optimistic scenario). Legal cannabis for adult use would create between 1,325 and 6,624 jobs. Those jobs would be associated with a total amount of contributions to Social Security ranging between €0.576M and €2.879M, which add to the tax revenues previously discussed. These results should be interpreted with caution. The assumptions of this work are extensively discussed in the paper, and any policy proposals based on our analysis should reflect the nature of those assumptions.
Citation
Caires, Filipe, Diogo Conceição, Filipe Correia, Mariana Esteves, António Melo, Alexandre Mendonça, Susana Peralta, and Pedro Rosado. 2022. “Cannabis for Recreational Use by Adults in Portugal: Economic Impact. A Tax Revenue Approach.” Working paper. https://doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.33551.29602.
@unpublished{CCCEMMPR22,
author = {Filipe Caires and Diogo Concei{\c{c}}{\~a}o and Filipe Correia and Mariana Esteves and Ant{\'o}nio Melo and Alexandre Mendon{\c{c}}a and Susana Peralta and Pedro Rosado},
year = {2022},
title = {Cannabis for Recreational Use by Adults in Portugal: Economic Impact. A Tax Revenue Approach},
note = {Working paper},
doi = {10.13140/RG.2.2.33551.29602}}