Setting the Scene: Demographic Change, Economic Growth and Intergenerational Inequalities

Download

• Chapter (OECD)

Abstract

Opposing trends in longevity and fertility imply that the OECD population is becoming older. Without further policy action, the retirement of large cohorts will shrink the pool of productive workers, while the dependent population will expand. This chapter assesses the projected impact of these trends on GDP per capita growth to 2060 and puts them, as well as their implications for public finances, into a context of intergenerational disparities, documenting the diverging income and wealth trajectories across the generations and the implications for poverty among different cohorts. Possible complementary avenues for offsetting the negative growth effect of demographic change are considered and their potential quantified based on alternative simulation scenarios.

Citation

OECD. 2025. “Setting the Scene: Demographic Change, Economic Growth and Intergenerational Inequalities.” Chapter 2 in OECD Employment Outlook 2025. Paris: OECD Publishing.